Data analytics - then and now

I came across this article on Yahoo! Finance about how the S&P 500 index will perform in 2015.

Here's What Happened Those Other Times The S&P 500 Started The Year With 3 Down Days

I could not but avoid drawing a parallel between this analysis based on data trends with what astrologers do to predict a person's future.

Astrologers use a variety of means - some use a person's birth date and map that against the changing planetary positions to predict the person's future; some look at the lines on a person's palm and extrapolate to make the predictions; and there could be an enterprising astrologer who uses the planetary positions and then correlates that with the brand of the dog food the person's dog eats to make the prediction. All based on a data trend.

In the case of making a prediction about the performance of S&P 500 index in 2015, it is based on how the index has performed historically during the first 3 days of an year.  Here's where the dog food comes in - release of a Star Trek movie.  During one of those those years in the past when the S&P 500 index fell for the first 3 days in a year and the index ended up in the negative by the end of the year, there was a Star Trek movie release.

Data analytics, as an offshoot of Statistics, is considered a science (check the Wikipedia page) and has proven itself fairly well in several realms - consumer behavior, traffic predictions, brand adoption and even clinical trials etc.

So, should we call astrology as science and put it up on a pedestal as the oldest use of data analytics - only without the help of massive computational power?

Snow and Schools

A snow storm hit Washington DC region today.  It is always a mess when snow hits the region - drivers go crazy and that only compounds the already jammed roadways.  Now, to this already pathetic situation, add that the storm hits at dawn when everyone is trying to send the kids off to school and drive to their offices.  The result is crashes on the roads - cars, school buses and what not.

Loudoun and Fairfax Counties in Northern Virginia have decided to open the schools and there is chaos already on the roads. Both school districts have published apologies for the decision and that they are human.  Granted and understood.  I have a lot of respect for the school systems and their concern for the inconvenience that school closure would cause to working parents.

I get it that the weather forecast was not perfect and that it made sense to take the decision that they took at that time.  The Elementary Schools or the High Schools (depending on the county) are now in session.  However, as the situation was deteriorating and there are school bus accidents and school bus schedules going way off, would it not make sense to cancel the rest of the school schedules - the Middle Schools and the Elementary and High Schools as applicable for the respective counties?

When you want to get out of a hole, you need to stop digging.

Politics = Acting (Really?)

I read this post on NDTV which reports that Rahul Gandhi received advise from the MPs from his party.  Apparently there is advise from Chiranjeevi to Rahul Gandhi that politics is like acting and that Rahul Gandhi should smile more like how actors do on screen.  There is also advise that Rahul Gandhi should become more desi.

This is an acknowledgement that Rahul is fairly distanced from the reality of India and Indians and that he is also coming across as less interested in the happenings around.  The counsel he is receiving is to understand the caste system and how it should be used (read exploited) to the benefit of the party.  This to me is going backwards.

My read about Rahul Gandhi is that he is a disinterested soul in the political world.  Politics is a career that he was thrust into.  So, here are the options for Congress and Rahul:

Congress, leave Rahul alone to lead a life of his choice and you go find a decent leader.  Trust me there are several decent people left in the party.  All you have to do is let them surface and take charge.

Rahul, you have enough money and you can lead a grand life without doing anything.  So, there's that option or if you are serious about politics and service to people, there is another four and half years before the next general election, take a 2 year hiatus from active politics and go tour the villages, towns and slums in different parts of India without your retinue.  Understand their living and live their problems.  And you magically will be wiser and will not have to hear these people give you nonsensical advise.  You can't really go wrong with sincere and good intentions.